Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 1:48:15 GMT
But hey, I thought I needed the win, I tried, and I failed. Still a strong showing just...not strong enough.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 2:31:57 GMT
I am a crazy person: Sent to Cat: Okay, so let's talk about win equity. Contrary to the words of Bunny, I think you have a pretty good chance at FTC, however, those chances I feel are dependent on: A. Not splitting any votes of the people you were closest to through the game. People like Seal or Frog. If Capybara is on the jury, that's 2-3 votes I think you safely have while you fight for others. If you AND Capy are at tribal, I don't think those votes are likely to stay on either of you, not to mention there are fewer to get. As such, for you to succeed in the end, you need Capy on the jury. Secondly, I think the main thing people would hold against you at FTC is that while yes, you did work with your aquatica friends, you weren't fully able to make the hard decision necessary. The Frog vote points against this a little bit but I don't think it does enough, however, if at Final 5 you managed to cut Capy, those arguments fall flat, opening up more ways for you to plead your case. Third is, that very little of that matters if Eagle is at FTC, you can still fight, but the probability against winning against Eagle are slim. He's positioned himself as the key to success on both the Hedgehog and Bunny votes and will likely gain more respect for it. Eagle, as we just saw is good at challenges, in order for Eagle to not be at FTC he needs to lose both the immunity and the firemaking challenge. I feel based on...everything that's happened this merge, coming 1st or second in literally every challenge I've done, I'm the obvious candidate for being able to both block Eagle from the win, and I'll easily just go to firemaking against him if that is what is necesarry, which it likely will be. Not to mention with Eagle and Capy not there, the rounds where Aquatica members triumphed become feathers in your cap rather than being feathers in someone elses. Not to mention like, me at the end, I'm not that threatening to you, ever since final 7 I've been highly dependent on either winning immunity or the grace of other people, in this case, you very likely control my fate here, which is a great point for why people should vote for you over me. I think it's just the right move for your game to vote out Capy and keep me alive here, but ultimately, it is your choice. Sent to Capy: So, my pitch to you is very...very unique. For the record, I am currently voting you, I am also encouraging others to vote you out at this juncture, I probably wouldn't be doing this if literally anyone else won immunity but Eagle did. However, I do not think it is smart for you to vote for me, which I feel would be your inclination for *opens a comically large scroll* a ton of reasons. The case is simple. Eagle, as just shown, is strong at challenges, Eagle gets a lot of credit for the same moves that you were involved in, it's no secret that he's loomed large over the game and has managed to be key to power wherever he went. If Eagle reaches endgame, that's a problem, and next round is final 4. Given the dire need to get out Eagle and them needing to lose both the immunity challenge AND firemaking, you need to increase the chances of that happening, you need someone who has had an exemplary challenge performance, you need someone who has gotten first or second in...every challenge since the merge began (except that creative one we don't talk about that), you need me, I'll gladly both try and win FIC or challenge Eagle to firemaking, if my only purpose is to be battering ram to open up FTC, that is fine, I do not care. As such it's bad for me to go here. I don't know what items you may have and whether you'd be able to survive this vote, but if you think it is likely, please, don't vote for me. I won't advocate a specific path, another reason for my vote for you is loyalty to Cat and Kes and I can't in good conscience say vote for someone specific, just please, don't try to vote me out here. Meanwhile I'm going to have a separate argument to Eagle about what "survival of the fittest" means, and probably state that I want him to 1v1 me in order to have my respect and thus jury vote. I hated when Poirot tried to leverage his jury vote, so I will be very careful in the arguments I make. I will not be surprised if the consensus becomes "fuck this guy" and they kill me, but I will let my arguments do the talking. No item claims, no chicanery, just good honest arguments, it's my biggest strength besides challenges, but we've already seen how the latter has failed me.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 2:44:54 GMT
Oh god...I just realized. The time I spent checking the Sudoku mattered, it took like a minute...if I had just posted I might have won by like a second, welp.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 2:48:04 GMT
Also with no returnee, last terrestria standing.
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Rat
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Posts: 374
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 4:20:10 GMT
Capy had questions, I had answers I'll handle your questions in order: "I have thought about that, I think Eagle has a decent shot to win. I do need to ask why you feel the need to keep voting for me over and over again?" I mean, I was fine going for Eagle last round, but you simply...weren't around to discuss it. Like I waited for hours for a reply and got nothing during an important TC, is it really surprising I went along with Lion's crazy scheme to vote you at that point. I've also been with Bunny and Lion for a long long time and Cat and Kes since like Carnivora, tighter than I've been with you. Like strictly, I wanted to make it the furthest with the people I was closest too and have been targeting people who threatened that, you've landed in the crosshairs of that repeatedly. "On the other hand, this is also Eagle's first IC win. I have won two challenges as well so I don't count myself out for beating him at the next challenge." I mean one of those was the food chain game, where Eagle probably would have won if he ate me/read the rules. But yeah ya'll have been on parity. The issue is, to eliminate Eagle, you can't just...beat him at the challenge. You need to beat him twice, and at parity, that's risking your game on a roughly 25% chance. Double your choices double your chances, and I'm fairly confident that I can beat Eagle twice as this is pretty much the only time he's done better than me at any challenge, and with the amount of win equity I and likely most of the jury see him having, you need to be as such as possible. Not to mention like, all the moves you made with Eagle are ones you didn't make with me, so they're a strength at FTC. "Lets say you do make final 4, wouldn't you also want someone else who was strong at challenges to compete with Eagle as well?" Refer to my first answer. Voting for you is mutually exclusive with not betraying one of my deepest alliances and while you do help the equation at F4, I'm still very confident in myself. It's a matter of weighing a lot of options but those are the two it boils down to.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 5:34:44 GMT
It turns out the pitch of "I'm voting you, don't vote for me" is in fact, not a strong one and Capy counters my pleas of loyalty with...."okay but I'm loyal too" which is fair. Probably not the phrasing I should have gone for, but eh, was worth a shot.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 19:39:10 GMT
I might have Cat with me and Kes, Eagle I'm less sure about but I think will choose not to vote for me. I spent a lot of purple prose on Eagle though our paradigms about the game are very very different. At least I made it close if I go here.
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Rat
Endangered
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 20:14:50 GMT
Today I do not view as an argument for Eagle to vote me via tactics, but rather a fight for his soul. Which to be fair, I do ultimately believe that if he votes me out, even if he wins the game, it will cost him in the end like no other.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 21:22:11 GMT
Though I did also just tell them that a lot of the impactful actions they made are not risky...this is...a questionable strategy. Though I am kind of just steeling myself for the jury.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 21:58:37 GMT
I do have Kes fighting for me, it is unclear if it is helping.
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Rat
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Posts: 374
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 22:03:51 GMT
Welp down to Cat. I am not liking my chances.
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Algae
Spectatora
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Post by Algae on May 12, 2021 22:59:53 GMT
Today I do not view as an argument for Eagle to vote me via tactics, but rather a fight for his soul. Which to be fair, I do ultimately believe that if he votes me out, even if he wins the game, it will cost him in the end like no other. What do you mean by this last line?
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Rat
Endangered
Posts: 374
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Post by Rat on May 12, 2021 23:45:10 GMT
Simple, the quality of win matters. Either Eagle votes me out and wins the game, doesn't vote me out and wins the game. Doesn't vote me out and loses, or votes me out and loses.
If he wins and he votes me out, I fear he'll wonder of he could have still have won if he didn't play it safe and those concerns stick with you forever. If he loses well clearly something was amiss in his calculations and he'll regret that. The only one I think won't have any regrets is if he chooses to keep me and wins.
I suppose it is not a battle for his soul as I phrased it but that's the heart of it.
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Rat
Endangered
Posts: 374
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Post by Rat on May 13, 2021 0:27:21 GMT
watch me have gotten cat but go out to an item.
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