MISSION REPORT | 15 - Mammals of the Sea

"Some important things to take away from this..."

It taps the diagram with its wing.

"Obviously, these are what the animals pitched to me, the Eagle. Thus, the fact that I am included in all of them is unsurprising. I am unsure whether these are their actual preferences, but it is as good as I am going to get on the information front for now."

"You will note the Kestrel is in every combination. I am quite happy with this, as I think the Kestrel is someone who make take me to Final 3 should they win firemaking, and they are someone I would want to see at the end simply because I have enjoyed them immensely. I am unsure whether our connection is perhaps too obvious, but I genuinely believe all animals do want Kestrel in their Final 4s, as Kestrel has very good relations with everyone. I am just hoping they are tipped off if someone is coming after me."

"You will also note that nobody wants the Lion in the Final 4 except the Lion himself. He is viewed as a social threat to a very high degree, and nobody wants to risk him making FTC. I suspect he will be blindsided at F6, due to the possibility that he holds a real idol, but I am unsure whether this is in my interest as I believe that leaves me without a shield at F5. I would, in that case, have to rely on goodwill to make F4."

"The Rat used to be included in more of these combinations, specifically the Kestrel's and perhaps the Cat's. But he has fallen off the face of the Earth in communications since merge, and that has had its downsides. People do not want an autopick to be present at F4, which is the same reason the Capybara is not in many of these."

"I believe the Bunny's preference of F4 is mainly just any F4 that includes themselves, but this is the one they have outright expressed interest in. They will likely be quite flexible."

It thinks to itself.

"I am unsure which I prefer. I think Blue is the best combination for me in terms of the F4, both because of general challenge prowess and because I could see both the Capybara and the Kestrel potentially taking me to the end should they win FIC, whereas I do not believe any of the other players would do so. However, I believe that combination leaves me with a quite awkward F5, because I think people will view my connection to the Capybara as being very dangerous. A player that quiet who clearly has a strong bond to a louder player is always going to make both players be viewed with suspicion."

The Eagle sighs.

"I think the Rat going home this round was something I could easily have made happen, and would have been best for my game. The Lion seems to believe that the other Lion vote was the Capybara, so those two were always going to stay at one anothers' throats, so the F6 vote would have been safe. I am not sure this will be the case between Lion/Rat or Capybara/Rat."

It gets out a notebook and starts scribbling.

"Pros of keeping Capybara. He seems extremely loyal, and committed to the Aquatica-Aeria F4. He seems like he may be a player willing to take me to F3 should he win FIC. And I believe him to be probably the player I would fare best against at FTC, because his moves have mostly also been my moves but without maintaining the connections to the other side."

"Cons of keeping Capybara. If people view him as very close to me, it massively increases the target on my back, as a pairing where one of the players is very quiet and the other is very social will always worry everyone. He would also almost certainly be the autopick for any FIC winner to take to F3, although I do not know that this is that important as I do not really see anyone other than him or Kestrel taking me, and Kestrel I feel would take me anyway. Finally, perhaps most importantly, he has begun speaking a great deal about 'taking out the threats'. For now this is focused on Lion, and I hope after that it would turn toward Rat as a challenge threat, but there is a worry that if he is concerned about 'big players', I would be top of the list after Lion is removed."

It flips the page and begins scribbling again.

"Pros of keeping Lion. He is a big player, and very overtly the biggest threat to win the game, at least in the eyes of the players. This makes him the single best shield out there. He has also been quite honest and straightforward with me, which leads me to believe he genuinely does want me at Final 5; it makes sense, as I am probably the player he considers his best shield as well. Sending him home would also be rather brutal given the manner in which his immunity was taken away, and Rat has already expressed that he would not want to vote the Lion for this reason."

"Cons of keeping Lion. He probably does not like me very much, given I have constantly been responsible for sending his allies home. He is clearly very willing to prepare and try hard on challenges, which makes me think he has some potential for an immunity run, and if he does so all the way to the end it would make FTC very difficult indeed. I also do not trust that he would not try to eliminate me at Final 5, despite his assurances that he considers the Cat a jury threat. Finally, leaving him alive leaves three Terrestria players in the final six - something that concerns me more than three Mammalia players, because Mammalia includes Kestrel who I trust. I doubt it would come down to Terrestria strong at this late stage, but I know for a fact that he is very close to the Bunny, and I ideally do not want any potential alliance structures to be possible that do not involve myself or the Kestrel."

It thinks to itself.

"I need to have conversations about this. It is a hard decision, and I suspect it is one that will come down to a decision made by myself and the Kestrel."

The Eagle considers the question.

"Hm. There are a few answers I could give, depending on how we define impactful. It is difficult to ignore the Dog being the subject of so much attention, for example."

"However, I think my answer would be the Moth. It feels to me as though the Moth laid the groundwork for the absolute trainwreck of a tribe that Herbivora has been since the merge. Firstly, the Moth prevented a unanimous vote on an inactive (probably Capybara) by forcing an anti-Terrestria narrative, causing some divides to emerge in a tribe that would otherwise have had numbers advantage. Secondly, the target they chose to go after held an idol, which meant an idol was flushed at a very early stage in the game - I think there was significant possibility that this idol could have heavily affected the merge had it gotten here. In particular, since the Sloth was about as far from me on the relationship chart as one can get, I think that idol could well have ended my game."

"The Moth was a bold player. Bold players do not always make the best moves, and I was not happy about some of the moves he made and things he said in the earlygame. But one thing you can certainly say about bold players is that they shape the game, even if they leave early."

"I do worry a little that I may have spun things too hard here. I informed the Lion that the Capybara was after him before the Capybara officially made the choice to target Lion. There is certainly some room for them to communicate and figure out that I am egging them on against one another."

"My hope is that the Lion thinks the Capybara is untrustworthy, given 'his' vote against the Lion last round, and so they do not try to form anything like this. But I suppose we shall see. I think I have strong enough connections with other animals that I would hear if a group of four was getting together to change up the game."

"...Is the Capybara claiming to hold another double vote?"

"I do not know whether this changes things. I need to talk more to him."

The Eagle kicks at some leaves in frustration.

"Stupid... Goddamn... Rat..."

It gathers itself and takes a deep breath.

"I was hoping that I could get the Rat on board with the Lion vote, so as to conceal the fact I did not use the extra vote. In a 5-3 tribal, the fifth vote must be revealed; in a 6-2 tribal, it will not be."

"Of course, they end up being much closer to the Lion than I had anticipated, and not long after I find a barrage of messages from the entirety of Terrestria trying to convince me that this is a bad idea."

"Everyone from Terrestria? Really, friends? You think that going hard like that makes me think it is a good idea to keep all of you in the game?"

It sighs.

"The ideal boot here would actually be Bunny. The Lion is not wrong in saying that he is my shield. The Rat is not an option. And the Bunny is the player I have the least connection with; we have the under the radar alliance, but I have constantly fed him information through that and he has returned... nothing. The first time he seems to have taken it seriously is here and now, going all out to save the Lion."

"Actually... I wonder if I can flip this onto the Bunny. I am sure the Capybara would not be unhappy to avoid being idolled out. My main concern is that the Bunny is close to the Kestrel, and I do not want to annoy my Ride or Fly..."