Post by Gray Wolf on Apr 7, 2021 19:24:11 GMT
Hello,
Caveat of course that these are subjective and could be erroneous, but they're fun to speculate about so I'm going to give it a shot!
Carnivora:
This tribe is a little tricky as we have both extant fitness winners on this tribe leading to a more tangled dynamic. Axolotl sold Aquatica down the river, but could still be tight with them. Dog threw Aeria under the bus, but likes Eagle. So who knows what those connections will bring.
1. Eagle
Eagle is in a good spot, connected to Axolotl, connected to Dog, and connected to Kestrel. With a fractured Terrestria, Eagle probably has the best chance of influencing the direction of the tribe and it'll be interesting to see whether he tries to save Dog for himself or not (probably not but it would be interesting!). Any way that the tribe breaks, I don't know if Eagle's in trouble here.
2. Axolotl
This may be a controversial placement but I think Axolotl has taken their second chance and has run with it, putting in the work for Aeria and still having strong ties to their water buddies. I think if they can rein it in just a little bit they can do well on this tribe and be a key point in how things turn out with their connections to both Aeria and Aquatica members.
3. Kestrel
For Fbird, I think they're in a good spot. Close to Eagle, possibly close to water through Axolotl, I think they are strong.
4. Cat and Leopard Seal
Both old members of Aquatica seem like they are interchangeable here. Both are close to Axolotl and interested in an Aquatica/Aeria alliance. It will be interesting to see if they hear about their tribe dynamic from Aeria and how they feel about Axolotl revealing that information, but that remains to be seen. So far I think they're doing okay. It also remains to be seen if they will control the alliance with Axolotl, or if Aeria will, and that would result in them being higher.
6. Rat
I think Rat is in the best position of the Terrestria 4, and here's why. He's a strong player, already making strong connections with other members of the tribe. But he also was on the outs of the last vote, the rest of Terrestria voted Anglerfish (or probably meant to, in Dog's case). If he can keep his connections with Terrestria strong but also play up the rift, he might be able to play both sides depending on how things shake up. But right now he could be in danger for being on the wrong side of the vote.
7. Bunny
Bunny is in danger by virtue of being Terrestria on a tribe that looks like it's starting to form an Aquatica/Aeria alliance. I think they are a strong Terrestria player, and have plenty of opportunity to break that shackle and become well liked by other members of this tribe. But if Carnivora goes to tribal a lot, it may be bad for the bunny.
8. Genet
The self-proclaimed cockroach has a lot of ground to cover. Armed with a tribe that knows her as inactive and now with the prospect of meeting new people, can she rise to the challenge of forum survivor and be active enough to make it through this round?
9. Dog
Dog is probably dead in the water here, although someone could pick him up. But his PM style is already turning new people off. Barring an immunity sweep, I think it's curtains for the pooch.
Herbivora:
I think we'll see a little more cross tribal play from this group than Carnivora, and it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Already alliances are potentially forming, and Sloth's idol is leading to some interesting dynamics already.
1. Lion
Lion just got his way in Terrestria, knows where an idol is, and is already connecting with Butterfly. I think that Lion is doing very well so far, and will be a kingpin. But it will be important to see if he can manage his threat level, or if he'll just get sniped before the end of the game.
2. Three-toed Sloth
Sloth has an idol, and it's very public, though not common knowledge amongst everyone. He was able to leverage it in to a Terrestria alliance, and they probably just need to capitalize on the fractures in the other tribes in order to advance. It will be interesting to see how he plays it, but I'm excited to see where he goes from here.
3. Hedgehog
Hedgehog is doing well, connected with Terrestria. Again, by capitalizing on a broken Aeria tribe, she may be able to get ahead. But a lot remains to be seen with this tribe.
4. Butterfly
Even though Aeria had some turmoil last round, I think that Butterfly is in the best position to overcome it. I think they're a smart player and they'll be able to leverage a connection with Lion to do well.
5. Snowy Owl
Although a potential boot option last round, Snowl is probably in a good position on this tribe as they can unite with Butterfly against Moth, and can hopefully ingratiate themselves with the rest of the tribe. I believe they're in a good spot to do that.
6. Capybara
The lines are a little blurred still, but I believe Capybara was liked enough on Aquatica. He can use his charm to hopefully gain some allies for himself. We'll have to see, but he's been putting up a good social game so far, and if needed, can pull out a double vote.
7. Mongoose
100 words or less may be too little for the Mongoose, who seems to be at the bottom of Terrestria. I could see this turn into a consensus boot, and if he hasn't found a way to win the hearts of Terrestria, he'll be hard pressed to win the hearts of new people.
8. Moth
Moth is my player to watch, I'm really excited to see them play, but unfortunately they overplayed last round and have burned some bridges with Aeria. Still, the moth is charismatic and may be able to change their station, but if Butterfly and Snowy Owl hold a grudge, there's going to be hell to pay.
9. Frog
Frog was saved when Axolotl didn't show up, and saved again when he won immunity. There's something about Frog that's just not jiving with Aquatica. It will be interesting to see if that pattern continues with new tribemates, or if he's in trouble here, too. But he does have a lot of acorns...
Caveat of course that these are subjective and could be erroneous, but they're fun to speculate about so I'm going to give it a shot!
Carnivora:
This tribe is a little tricky as we have both extant fitness winners on this tribe leading to a more tangled dynamic. Axolotl sold Aquatica down the river, but could still be tight with them. Dog threw Aeria under the bus, but likes Eagle. So who knows what those connections will bring.
1. Eagle
Eagle is in a good spot, connected to Axolotl, connected to Dog, and connected to Kestrel. With a fractured Terrestria, Eagle probably has the best chance of influencing the direction of the tribe and it'll be interesting to see whether he tries to save Dog for himself or not (probably not but it would be interesting!). Any way that the tribe breaks, I don't know if Eagle's in trouble here.
2. Axolotl
This may be a controversial placement but I think Axolotl has taken their second chance and has run with it, putting in the work for Aeria and still having strong ties to their water buddies. I think if they can rein it in just a little bit they can do well on this tribe and be a key point in how things turn out with their connections to both Aeria and Aquatica members.
3. Kestrel
For Fbird, I think they're in a good spot. Close to Eagle, possibly close to water through Axolotl, I think they are strong.
4. Cat and Leopard Seal
Both old members of Aquatica seem like they are interchangeable here. Both are close to Axolotl and interested in an Aquatica/Aeria alliance. It will be interesting to see if they hear about their tribe dynamic from Aeria and how they feel about Axolotl revealing that information, but that remains to be seen. So far I think they're doing okay. It also remains to be seen if they will control the alliance with Axolotl, or if Aeria will, and that would result in them being higher.
6. Rat
I think Rat is in the best position of the Terrestria 4, and here's why. He's a strong player, already making strong connections with other members of the tribe. But he also was on the outs of the last vote, the rest of Terrestria voted Anglerfish (or probably meant to, in Dog's case). If he can keep his connections with Terrestria strong but also play up the rift, he might be able to play both sides depending on how things shake up. But right now he could be in danger for being on the wrong side of the vote.
7. Bunny
Bunny is in danger by virtue of being Terrestria on a tribe that looks like it's starting to form an Aquatica/Aeria alliance. I think they are a strong Terrestria player, and have plenty of opportunity to break that shackle and become well liked by other members of this tribe. But if Carnivora goes to tribal a lot, it may be bad for the bunny.
8. Genet
The self-proclaimed cockroach has a lot of ground to cover. Armed with a tribe that knows her as inactive and now with the prospect of meeting new people, can she rise to the challenge of forum survivor and be active enough to make it through this round?
9. Dog
Dog is probably dead in the water here, although someone could pick him up. But his PM style is already turning new people off. Barring an immunity sweep, I think it's curtains for the pooch.
Herbivora:
I think we'll see a little more cross tribal play from this group than Carnivora, and it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Already alliances are potentially forming, and Sloth's idol is leading to some interesting dynamics already.
1. Lion
Lion just got his way in Terrestria, knows where an idol is, and is already connecting with Butterfly. I think that Lion is doing very well so far, and will be a kingpin. But it will be important to see if he can manage his threat level, or if he'll just get sniped before the end of the game.
2. Three-toed Sloth
Sloth has an idol, and it's very public, though not common knowledge amongst everyone. He was able to leverage it in to a Terrestria alliance, and they probably just need to capitalize on the fractures in the other tribes in order to advance. It will be interesting to see how he plays it, but I'm excited to see where he goes from here.
3. Hedgehog
Hedgehog is doing well, connected with Terrestria. Again, by capitalizing on a broken Aeria tribe, she may be able to get ahead. But a lot remains to be seen with this tribe.
4. Butterfly
Even though Aeria had some turmoil last round, I think that Butterfly is in the best position to overcome it. I think they're a smart player and they'll be able to leverage a connection with Lion to do well.
5. Snowy Owl
Although a potential boot option last round, Snowl is probably in a good position on this tribe as they can unite with Butterfly against Moth, and can hopefully ingratiate themselves with the rest of the tribe. I believe they're in a good spot to do that.
6. Capybara
The lines are a little blurred still, but I believe Capybara was liked enough on Aquatica. He can use his charm to hopefully gain some allies for himself. We'll have to see, but he's been putting up a good social game so far, and if needed, can pull out a double vote.
7. Mongoose
100 words or less may be too little for the Mongoose, who seems to be at the bottom of Terrestria. I could see this turn into a consensus boot, and if he hasn't found a way to win the hearts of Terrestria, he'll be hard pressed to win the hearts of new people.
8. Moth
Moth is my player to watch, I'm really excited to see them play, but unfortunately they overplayed last round and have burned some bridges with Aeria. Still, the moth is charismatic and may be able to change their station, but if Butterfly and Snowy Owl hold a grudge, there's going to be hell to pay.
9. Frog
Frog was saved when Axolotl didn't show up, and saved again when he won immunity. There's something about Frog that's just not jiving with Aquatica. It will be interesting to see if that pattern continues with new tribemates, or if he's in trouble here, too. But he does have a lot of acorns...
