Rat
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Post by Rat on Mar 27, 2021 4:30:27 GMT
Some people say you can't reduce survivor to math. Those people are liars.
Just kidding, Survivor is a very complex game that highly depends on the cast you have, but that doesn't mean you can't get a sense of what will/won't help you. Basic idea of this thread is that everyone round either, benefits (+1), hurts (-1) or does nothing for (0) a person, and to keep track of who is getting things that benefit them the most to know who to target/work with. Obviously this will be hard to do premerge but hopefully I'm lucky enough to make merge so it can take full effect.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on Apr 8, 2021 15:33:21 GMT
Okay just going to ignore first tribes since it's unclear what to look for and I don't know the vote. I would say that in general the angler vote was good for those in the majority i.e probably genet, mongoose, bunny, lion, hedgehog
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Rat
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Post by Rat on Apr 21, 2021 6:49:44 GMT
Okay merge is here, so finally this will come into play. To get a general sense of where people are at (though not complete) here's a chart of connectivity  A few things of Note: Frog has very polarizing balance, with a lot of double bonds (3 of them being the rest of Aquatica) Cat and Seal have the only triple bond This means that Aquatica is likely going to be a fierce four and shouldn't get too far together. It also mean any Aquatica loss is likely to be big for all of them. Owl, Capy and Sloth all have met the most people, though Capy and Sloth can be a bit less on messages so it might not help them. I seem to be par for the course, which is exactly where I want to be. |
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Rat
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Post by Rat on Apr 26, 2021 20:10:19 GMT
Okay so let's go through the round of 13
Clear Losers (no points):
Frog: Lost an ally and is clearly in the minority
Cat: Also lost an ally, though they do have R.E.C.K to fall back on, but still not in a place to exert much power.
Owl: Third most votes but was a perennial target and a lot of heavy hitters like Hedgehog, Lion and Eagle all preferred them to Seal going. Really spells trouble for them and I'm not sure my efforts to court them will be enough, but I can at least get on their good side before they get cut.
Middle of the Road (0.5 points):
Capy: Might not have actually voted for Butterfly, which is interesting, but losing Seal is still a bit bad, but Capy will likely be fine and still has some options.
Butterfly: Second most votes, might become a target just for the fact they were targeted before. They are Social and Nice, but could easily be hung out to dry. However, it's clear that people do like them and much preferred seal or owl to them.
Eagle & Lion: Both confirmed to go for Owl (presumably due to stuff done in the Challenge) and Owl didn't go. Owl straight up doesn't trust Eagle and told Eagle this. Maybe Lion shouldn't be MOR, they have plenty of stuff to do, and Eagle also knew about the counter group Seal tried to form, but overall the results aren't great. Still grain of salt with these two.
Hedgehog: Not from a vote result, Hedgehog apparently got PO'd by something that happened during the round, it might be that Frog didn't actually go that round and thus, to appease them HAS to go now (which ironically will likely set them up to go in 11th, though I would try to avoid them going then), and being thwarted is not exactly good for them.
Win (1 Point)
Bunny & Rat: We both were peaked by Seal, who definitely didn't trust us. This result was ideal, not to mention the other vote getters were both people I hadn't met premerge, which is overall good, though I don't just want them out, that seems very shortsighted.
Sloth: Sloth voted Seal and was included in the counter group, Sloth is going to go UTR for a while and I'm interested by this.
Kestrel: Kestrel had no horse in the race here, and is flying high. In terms of flack, they got the least while still being themself.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on Apr 29, 2021 4:20:17 GMT
Okay so while I will talk about how the votes affect other people, I'm not assigning people points for a vote they weren't part of.
Vote 1: Hedgehog
Clear Losers (no points)
Lion & Butterfly: Lost an ally and probably don't have Eagle's trust anymore, clearly this round was just bad. Especially bad for Butterfly who didn't know about Capy's extra vote and thus put them on that tribe instead of Cat.
Middle of the Road (0.5 points)
Eagle: Worked with Frog and was part of the majority, but at a likely cost of a relationship with Lion and Butterfly. Not to mention they don't want to go FAAAAR with Frog which means this move only had temporary benefits in keeping up a shield. Though it does help their relationship with Cat.
Win (1 point)
Frog & Capy: I mean yeah, they lived, they pulled off a move, I don't see how this isn't a win.
Other impacts: Hedgehog going clearly hamstrings Bunny a bit, but I'm actually grateful that I didn't have to be the one to vote them off. It seems they were playing in a way that would have a LOT of collateral damage and that was not helpful. Also Frog is still there to be voted. Cat also still has their #1 which does make R.E.C.K an...awkward chat to say the least. I guess it's good for Snowy someone who voted for them is out?
Vote 2: Sloth
Clear Losers (0 points)
Owl: Was close with Sloth and if they were the vote for me, well then their time may be short, especially since if no one claims it, imma assume it was them.
Middle of the Road (0.5 points)
Rat: Sure sloth went, sure this means Kes is nice and safe, but the things Sloth said before the end about Cat and Snowy being down for voting me...really worry me. I am officially worried. Also like...I liked Sloth and am unsure whether Snowy was a better vote overall.
Bunny: Bunny handled that round....less than ideally. They certainly weren't straightforward with Sloth which is a problem whether they return or are on jury and once again, when safe, decided to do nothing.
Win (1 Point)
Cat: Cat might have gotten away with a vote on me, like they might be in for R.E.C.K or they might be in for revenge. I can't tell, regardless, Sloth they weren't close to, and they stayed off the table.
Kes: Only person who wasn't connected with them went home. I call that a win. Even receiving a vote it's not that surprising, so good for Kes.
Other Impacts: Snowy staying hurts Eagle now that I leaked Eagle voting for them, it also hurts Lion...was that something I considered in my vote...maaaaybe. Though it might mean that Aquatica + Snowy is a tough group the crack. However, Capy's extra vote is also gone, so...yeah they can be targeted now.
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Rat
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Post by Rat on May 7, 2021 6:47:43 GMT
Votes needed for update: Snowy, Butterfly, Frog
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