Episode 16 - Pride Before The Fall

uh since when is it necessarily incorrect to not vote in the majority?

huh I guess I wasn't aware it was that mainstream. seems JUDGMENTAL to me.

Rat posted 15 min long voice confessional. This is most of it

- "So, Bunny is...gone, for...reasons. And, I'm just...trying to piece together what the fuck just happened? And where to go from here."
- "Really hoping for the vote to be Lion vs. Capy. Then the challenge happened, and because of everything that went on with that, I preferred Capy to go out."
- Mess between Kestrel and Lion, involving personal things stated. Kestrel seemed like they'd probably be voting for Lion
- Eagle was going to vote Capy until Capy gifted them an extra vote. Eagle considering saving Capy being best game move and considering saving Capy because of feeling bad - "those frameworks don't exactly crossover"
- Eagle's reaction to this wasn't to mention, "hey, I have an extra vote and I really don't feel like voting out Capy." Reaction was concern about Cat going Rogue about Capy. Doesn't fit with Rat's perception of Cat's previous gameplay (working with Rat right after Seal voted off by Rat; Cat voted off Frog before).
- Rat thinks if Bunny loses Lion, they're attached to Kestrel/Rat, and also Bunny's just trying to get to FTC anyway. So, that doesn't make any sense. Eagle is saying some really weird reasoning.
- Rat is tired and decides to just tell Lion that Eagle is saying really weird shit and might be voting for him, and see what Lion does.
- This scared TF out of Eagle, who thought Lion is going to idol now. Eagle decides, OK, let's vote for Bunny.
- Multiple levels of why this is a problem: main case for voting out Lion is that Lion's a really big threat. Capybara is "not" a threat. (Threats are all optics things that can just be washed away at FTC. Whatever). What if Lion makes it to F5? Not going to be able to be removed at 4. Capy staying, most people if asked what their ideal F3, they're probably going to put Capy in there (seen as advancing Frog, but little other agency - but still the reason Hedgehog went, their extra vote here also caused some stuff). If Capy makes it to F5, they're probably taking up a slot. This is a problem for someone with a high threat level. So, take out one of them. Eagle decided, let's have both of them and have at least one of those things come true. So that's a choice!
- Eagle also decided to vote out Bunny...and just not tell me? It's unclear whether or not he told Kestrel. Kestrel was close to Bunny. Eagle thought Bunny had both the upside of Lion and Capy due to guaranteed F4. (Which..I get that was the plan...why not just say hey, I'm not sure we should bring Bunny this far). Either way, they decided to lie about the predicament, and make a very unilateral move because they had the double vote. Due to Eagle being in the middle, could've gotten their way with Capy or Lion.
- "Eagle thinks this makes their path to the end easier? By both making themselves a bigger threat than Lion, and voting out the person that one of your top allies was really close to, and also your other top ally was pretty close to, and not telling at least one of them about it. What the fuck Eagle?"
- Kestrel, based on interactions with Lion, Rat gets wanting to vote out Lion.
- "Capy I don't quite get gifting the extra vote, but it had its intended effect. Just using it to tie wasn't enough. So, I guess that worked out." Rat thinks Capy should've pushed Lion harder so they could bring Bunny to the end though.
- Cat has never gotten along with Bunny, so that makes sense.
- "Feels like the person who targeting Bunny works the least for...is the person who had the largest role in it. And I do not understand this."
- "If Eagle doesn't win the challenge, let's vote out Eagle. Either Eagle has an idol, or they think we're just gonna vote out Lion again. Instead of, yknow, talking to Capy and Cat, and giving reason for why Eagle might not be the best person."
- Eagle also tried to "pin their reason on something Cat probably didn't actually say."
- "Eagle, you had a Final 4! It's a Final 4 you still have a pretty good shot in. And you just decided, to do something really weird at Final 7?"
- "I think I'm just in a lot of confusion about everything, but ultimately my hopes are that things will be fine with Kestrel. We were on different sides of a vote, whatever. Lion, we're already good, we were voting together."
- Rat mostly needs to manage Cat and Capy. Tried to be open about having voted Capy last round, hopefully that's enough to make them not want to just vote him out.
- "That move will define the endgame...I just can't tell if it's a move where, it gave people a really good shot, or whether they just kind of...made it so nothing was going to work out for them. Because if their plan is to vote out me, gotta say, you're not going to get my jury vote. And if their plan isn't to vote out me, why the fuck wouldn't you tell me?"
- "Anyway, the main message of this is...don't take naps near the end of tribal council, because this is the second time weird shit has happened then."
- If Rat had been around, might've been informed, might've been able to talk Eagle out of it. "But perhaps this is the best?"
- "Apparently Bunny thinks Cat/Capy/Kes are all goats. Which, yay me? But...eh... Kestrel has been fine with everyone. Cat has voted their heart and tried to help everyone. Most obviously genuine. One of the reasons why Lele one." Cap has been difficult, but very integral. Best use of items. "You can't just discount that."

poisonpie you are a hero

Also can't wait for the reaction when inevitably someone on Cat's hitlist comes back.

This game could end well or not well. There are still 3 winners I'd find quite satisfying. Maybe cat has a good underdog story too? But I'm not sure what they've done.

I'm a little concerned by the prospect of Capy and a returnee filling two seats.

I think Cat is still in a decently good spot tbh.

I agree that getting Bunny may have been an overplay, but also are Capy and Cat going to vote Eagle next? Because if they aren't, then Eagle is going to be hard to kill.

And Lion attempting to "set up" Capy vs Eagle is silly because he needs Capy on his side. Eagle isn't going to target Capy next. More likely, it will be Lion vs Eagle next, and I doubt that Kestrel will want Eagle gone just yet.

I honestly see Lion being the next boot, especially if he tunnels on Eagle. But we'll have to see.