Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
Apr 30, 2021 18:20:41 GMT
Post by Bunny on Apr 30, 2021 18:20:41 GMT
Ok update time. Let's get my thoughts down, maybe this'll help me consolidate.
People I can trust to push back on any wagon formed on me:
Lion Butterfly(?!) Kestrel
People I trust who would temporarily vote to keep me around: Eagle Rat Snowy Owl(?)
People I trust would vote to remove me if they could Capybara Frog Cat-I believe Cat has already shopped my name *this* vote.
The biggest question marks I have at the moment are Kestrel and Eagle. I believe the two of them are the driving forces of everything in this game. I think they are well connected, personable, and criminally UTR.
I desperately hope I'm wrong and actually they just both really like *me* in particular, but I don't believe that's true. I don't feel like I can do *any* investigation about them because the second I do I'm dead.
My hope is one of them blows up their game somehow. Maybe they piss off someone who thought they were an ally who decides to go down in flames but bringing up their game. Maybe they try to save an ally who overextended and fail miserably (highly unlikely). That's my dream scenario.
If that doesn't happen, something has to give by the time we reach F7. If I am not their third partner, I will be removed right around here.
I remember playing in a discord game where Zoroster won where he played a game that feels identical to their approach. He was super closely allied and described his alliance as a "tree, where he kept cutting off the excess branches". Everyone thought they were important, but nobody else really mattered. I forget who else was in his core. I thought it was Het, but I'm not sure. What made it work is that his alliance was secret.
In my dreams I am doing that at the moment. The problem is, I'm nearly as UTR as he was. I don't have as many allies. If I can trust Butterfly's second hand information from Snowy Owl, Cat has already said my name. Therefore, I am not playing that game.
I don't know what to do. This game is too hard.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
Apr 30, 2021 23:29:39 GMT
Post by Bunny on Apr 30, 2021 23:29:39 GMT
Well, here goes my game. Up in smoke, or perhaps Snow.
I hope to last 2 rounds after this without being targeted. Maybe some bullshit happens then and I can get through to the hyper endgame where threat status matters more.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 1, 2021 16:12:04 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 1, 2021 16:12:04 GMT
Well, I'm pretty convinced at least Kestrel+Rat+Eagle are together. I'm worried about Kestrel being tight with Cat as well given how strongly Kestrel defended Cat and said Cat was *not* pushing me.
Kestrel also didn't commit to pushing Snowy Owl last vote when it was Butterfly or Snowy. Kestrel seemed to want to vote out Butterfly, but as far as I can tell Butterfly is solely focused on the Aquatica trio. Why then, would Kestrel be considering voting Butterfly?
Well, if one of the members of the Aquatica trio seemed to be closer to Kestrel than Butterfly was. Who is the most likely to fit into that category? Cat. Cat is 100% the answer there.
In my dreams, Kestrel was simply more out of the loop than I was last vote, and Kestrel just believes Cat didn't actually push me at all. I don't believe that is the case.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 1, 2021 16:17:46 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 1, 2021 16:17:46 GMT
Like, idk. In my eyes, this tribe is down to 3 trios. Me+Lion+Butterfly. Frog+Cat+Capy. Rat+Kestrel+Eagle.
I also think, other people *think* the alliance structure looks like me+Lion+Butterfly+Kestrel vs Frog+Cat+Capy. Rat+Eagle playing the middle.
Even if I'm right about what people think vs what's actually true, I have no idea what to do about it. I feel if I just let things play out as expected, this vote one of us 3 goes. Next vote one of Aquatica goes. The good news for me is I'm pretty confident I will *not* be the first one in my alliance that gets the boot.
Do I think I need to make a play *now* to protect myself for 3 votes from now? Possibly.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 1, 2021 16:22:45 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 1, 2021 16:22:45 GMT
Let's think through the possible plays I can make though.
1 play: go to Aquatica (specifically Frog/Cat. I cannot talk to Capy at all to save my fucking life. Capy just never wants to communicate with me). I offer to flip, on condition that Kestrel is the target. The worry is that they will, of course, then take this to Kestrel who takes it to Eagle/Rat. Honestly, they could probably just take it to Eagle/Rat themselves b/c the case I make on kestrel will inevitably be about this trio.
I believe that line leads to me being voted out instead of Butterfly.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 1, 2021 16:30:58 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 1, 2021 16:30:58 GMT
A different play: I go to Butterfly/Lion and ask them if they're willing to vote out Rat here. Then as a group, we go to Aquatica and make the offer.
God damnit. This all breaks down immediately b/c of them immediately going to the other trio. I think we need to wait until 2 people have been voted out.
If I start talking about that future to Aquatica immediately, I doubt they will believe me and it'll just instantly be leaked. Maybe even they will believe my judgement, but they'll still just use it as an opportunity to vote me out and deal with the other trio later. I don't believe I can do anything here. I just need to stare down the barrel of the rifle and hope.
Who even knows! Maybe a second member of Aquatica goes and all my predictions and fears are unnecessary.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 1, 2021 16:33:12 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 1, 2021 16:33:12 GMT
Maybe I needed to get Kestrel voted out on the tribe I drafted. Maybe at that moment when I was immune I needed to make that push.
Probably Rat was the better option there instead. I believe Rat was at his most vulnerable there, and I know I would have gotten Sloth+me+Snowy on Rat.
The more I think about it, the more I regret that. If I had gone after Rat there, I believe this whole thing becomes way easier. Last vote we could have removed Cat. I'm confident Sloth would have chosen to keep Snowy over Cat, and Sloth was simply not as close to Kestrel and Eagle as Rat is.
FUCK.
It feels so shitty realizing I had the perfect position to make a play, and then I fucked it all up. Of course that's why Kestrel pushed me onto Sloth. I feel like an idiot.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 1, 2021 20:36:33 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 1, 2021 20:36:33 GMT
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Merge
May 2, 2021 1:26:56 GMT
Post by Bitter Poisonpie on May 2, 2021 1:26:56 GMT
✦Questions✦ 1. What was the highlight of the game so far? 2. What was the worst moment of the game so far? 3. Which in-game relationship(s) are you putting the most effort into lately?
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 2, 2021 3:12:13 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 2, 2021 3:12:13 GMT
I really enjoyed the "create an animal" challenge. It helps that I won it.
I think my favorite moment was when Mammalia tribe got its shit together so hard. I didn't think a 4 person TC could ever be like that.
Worst moment was def last vote when I was driving home from the airport and had like 5 messages from people with varying degrees of "are you fucked?"
I'm putting the most effort into Kestrel/Lion/Butterfly and Eagle. Shocking I know, I'm working with my allies. I just don't believe I can share intelligence/plans about my future with Frog or Cat. I believe Cat has leaked shit I've said to hear multiple times now at merge, and I believe Frog wants to see me dead. I don't think I can give him *any* ammunition against me.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 2, 2021 16:15:39 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 2, 2021 16:15:39 GMT
So Eagle wants me to vote out Butterfly here, with the plan of voting out Frog next vote. I'm worried I would be Frog's counterwagon next vote.
I don't want to be a major wagon next round. I also want to make Eagle think I'm on his side (which I want to be). Kestrel sounds on the fence.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 3, 2021 0:33:19 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 3, 2021 0:33:19 GMT
Ah shit. I fucked up. I told Lion Eagle wasn't voting with us. I was *not* supposed to say that. SHIT SHIT SHIT SHIT.
I don't want Eagle as an enemy, and I'll never fucking know if he dislikes me or not.
Of course he's going to hear about it if Lion tells *anyone*.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 3, 2021 1:03:39 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 3, 2021 1:03:39 GMT
Uh oh Spaghettio's.
That ain't good.
Well, hopefully Lion is actually Frog's next target and hopefully my allies are being honest and will actually save Lion next vote. If Lion goes home, I'm pretty sure I'm fucked.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 3, 2021 17:03:57 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 3, 2021 17:03:57 GMT
Well, Eagle/Lion/Kestrel are assuring me my position is better than I think it is.
Cat has reached out and I really hope to connect there to survive. I expect the narrative to flip shortly and Kestrel/Eagle/Rat to get targeted after Frog and maybe Capybara go home.
I hope I'm viewed as being in the middle/bottom so I will not get targeted if things flip.
If I had to analyze my position right now, I'd say it most closely resembles Vash's position at Survivormeet. He was part of an alliance that got behind and started falling apart, but he wasn't targeted and was close to the ones running the tribe. I'm hoping to follow that approach.
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Bunny
Endangered
Posts: 205
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Merge
May 5, 2021 23:08:32 GMT
Post by Bunny on May 5, 2021 23:08:32 GMT
Welp bois. This is officially a scary moment. If Frog has an idol, I think I'm going home. If he doesn't have an idol, I might be alive. We'll see.
I believe that *many* different people have good reasons to get Frog voted out here. I hope I'm not just reading into what I want them to believe and finding justifications for them to do what I want.
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