Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 4, 2021 20:52:19 GMT
Given how many posts Chickadee has been made over the last few days (and how absent Shark is), I've concluded that there is no Redemption Island in this game, which makes sense given Fitness Challenge. Oh, and now Chickadee is in my confessional. That settles that, then. Hi Chickadee! Glad to see you still around, hope you're enjoying yourself!
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 3:55:27 GMT
So Sloth brought this up to me. There are two options here:
1) Vote out Genet. This means we have 6 of our original tribe left before the swap, while Aeria has 7 or 6 [Axolotl/Not Axolotl] and Aquatica has 5. 2) Vote out not Genet and target Dog or Anglerfish instead. Then our tribe is at 7, Aeria has 7 or 6 or 5 [Axolotl/One of Dog/Aeria/Dog & Aeria], and Aquatica has 5 or 4 [Anglerfish/No Anglerfish].
I'm not sure what to think about this. I'll have to ponder, because getting rid of Genet right before they swap may be the time to do it. But we should have a plan for when/if Genet wins Immunity, also. I think the right play is to not look like the biggest tribe before the swap, which means getting rid of Genet.
But I wouldn't mind getting rid of Anglerfish here, because Axolotl is probably fucked if he doesn't win Immunity.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 16:08:30 GMT
Alright, just did a massive overhaul of the Player Opinions thread.
I'll be making another post in a bit, about where I see this TC going as a whole and what I'd like.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 16:16:51 GMT
So it turns out trying to deal with numbers late at night is just hard?
Of all tribes, there are exactly 7 left. Aquatica is split among 3 tribes, while Aeria is 2 and we're on 1. This is a very big problem, because Aquatica could come together when we swap (which is probably after this TC), and have all the information they'd need, plus nearly equal numbers. I also don't trust Anglerfish to work with us going forward much.
Aquatica is definitely going down to at least 6.
Aeria will probably end up staying at 7, because they'd be a fool to not to vote out Axolotl here. They just got handed a freebie.
By voting out Anglerfish here, we stop Aquatica from gaining INFINITE INFORMATION, and nothing of value is lost because the Axolotl/Anglerfish dilemma goes literally nowhere as they get voted out at the same time.
This leaves the tribes 7-7-4, while also guranteeing someone gets easy boot Genet to keep things simple for them for a round.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 16:51:51 GMT
On the note of the challenge, I have no bloody clue. I decided to go fast because I don't need this. I'd certainly take an Immunity win if I need it, but I'm not going to stress here.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 21:00:46 GMT
From Sloth, in the group chat. Just throwing it here for safekeeping/spec enjoyment.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 23:05:24 GMT
OK so as a bit of a thought experiment, I'm random.org'ing potential swaps and seeing what they would look like for me + what my line of play for survival would be. I'm going to do both two tribes of 9 and three tribes of 6, just for the sake of completeness, I'm going to assume that I get the first 8 or 5 people on the list, respectively. That said, this first roll is uh.... less than interesting. Tribe of 6 (Lion, Mongoose, Rat, Cat, Bunny, Snowy Owl) - Rat/Bunny/Mongoose/Myself come in as a preset four, and we event have two people to vote out. In the event that We lose again, Mongoose is on the outside, so this should be easy. Tribe of 9 (Lion, Mongoose, Rat, Cat, Bunny, Snowy Owl, Flapjack Octopus, Moth, Hedgehog) - Wow, won't you see, a preset group of 5. This is basically as dull honestly. But it's safe, so that's cool. This hella murders Sloth though.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 23:20:19 GMT
Tribe of 6 (Lion, Frog, [Axolotl/Butterfly], Hedgehog, Leopard Seal, Rat) - This is a great time to mention I specifically chose Butterfly as the Axolotl stand-in vote because Butterfly was the next Aeria alphabetically. - Hedgehog, Rat, and myself are tight enough to form an alliance immediately and run with this. Publically, however, I would likely want to downplay how close I am to the two in order to make some inroads to the Aquatica group. This is a 3 vs. 3 standoff, and could very well result in rocks that choose fate. The easiest way to avoid this would be to make inroads specifically with Axolotl. - In the event we tribe with Butterfly instead of Axolotl, I think this ends up being similar, but I can play Butterfly against the Leopard Seal/Frog pairing because of both Rocks and the knowledge that they're running the tribe. Alternatively, the five of us team up on a butterfly vote, but that's probably never happening. Tribe of 9: (Lion, Frog, [Axolotl/Butterfly], Hedgehog, Leopard Seal, Rat, Eagle, Dog, Elephant) - Leopard Seal & Frog probably become good votes here, depending on how close Axoltl is to them. Alternatively, Dog goes hellbound on murdering Aeria and this becomes Dog vs. Eagle or Elephant. But I do think the proper play is getting close to one of Frog or Leopard Seal, then murdering the other for a free close ally. - If Butterfly is in this tribe, Dog's best play is to vote with Aeria as a block of 4. If this is a concern, we can grab Frog & Seal to help even out the tribe split, and make this work as a makeshift 5-man survival alliance.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 5, 2021 23:25:58 GMT
Tribe of 6: (Lion, Leopard Seal, Bunny, Cat, Moth, Eagle) - This gets really fun because I could see trying to make an alliance with one person from each tribe and working and the core of the tribe. If Cat is here, I could pull Cat as a felines alliance, and Cat would probably be desperately looking for allies so if I extended the hand I have no doubts it'd be taken. Tribe of 9: (Lion, Leopard Seal, Bunny, Cat, Moth, Eagle, Flapjack Octopus, Elephant, Hedgehog) - This is, hilariously enough, a bigger version of the prior tribe. Tribal alliances probably break down really quickly, because 3 groups of 3 is fucking awkward. This would heavily depend on the personalities of the people in the tribe, because I'd want to work fast here and make something stick.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 6, 2021 0:29:55 GMT
And now, for the 'yeesh this sucks' draw: Tribe of 6: (Lion, Frog, Cat, Moth, Leopard Seal, [Anglerfish/Genet]) - Talk about being in the minority. I'm comfortable in my ability to outlast Moth (and Genet if we have Genet), but this is a sticky situation after that and I'd want to pull out all the stops to win here ALL THE DAMN TIME. But yeah, this is a do or die. Tribe of 9: (Lion, Frog, Cat, Moth, Leopard Seal, [Anglerfish/Genet], Capybara, Eagle, Bunny) - Hilariously, I feel better about this tribe, despite having no functional difference in composition. There's more room to play here, and I'd certainly be safe for longer here if Terrestria is anything to use as an example. I could probably even worm my way into the hearts of the Aquatica tribe after a bit.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 6, 2021 2:14:17 GMT
Eh, it looks like Dog may go instead.
Not my favourite option, but still an option nonetheless. I'd much rather Anglerfish go, but that's because I feel like I'm failing that relationship compared to the others.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 6, 2021 5:33:10 GMT
Or not? I'm not even pushing for Anglerfish, but it seems that Hedgehog, Mongoose, and Genet all want Anglerfish to go more after a quick talk. This is fortutitous.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 6, 2021 5:47:46 GMT
If this happens this goes on my Resume.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 6, 2021 22:46:22 GMT
Seems like I pushed hard enough to keep things up in the air, still. Which is cool. I'm down for a bit of drama, lmao. I'll take it.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 6, 2021 23:35:35 GMT
HAHAHAHAHA. HAHAHAHAHAHA.
GENET/MONGOOSE EXPECT A SLOTH/BUNNY/RAT ALLIANCE. THEY HAVE NO IDEA.
HEDGEHOG WANTS TO GO TO THE FINALE WITH ME.
I'M GETTING THE VOTE I WANT.
I'M SO GOOD AT THIS GAME.
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