Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 4:55:43 GMT
I imagine that the only way Dog doesn't go here is that Genet makes a big fuss over Rat and Bunny being allied - which seems like a death sentence for Genet. I feel like Dog's too bad to be a goat honestly.
That said, I'm up for a spicy TC too. So Dog ot going would be great.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 4:56:40 GMT
That said, HOLY SHIT WE NEEDED THIS TC OFF.
That would have been so stressful, woooow. Thank everything.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 5:02:48 GMT
This is the most fucking awkward situation to be in right now.
Butterfly-Frog is a thing, Frog is attached to Capybara.
Sloth-Mongoose is a thing, Snowy Owl is attached [and probably allied] to Sloth.
Hedgehog and I are sitting in the middle. This is me. I did this. To myself.
I am now in a position where, if we lose a TC, I have to come up with a damn good reason why I couldn't make a play happen....
And this is why the next play needs to be Snowy Owl vs. Capybara?
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 5:14:19 GMT
I'm writing this PM here for when we go to TC for Hedgehog:
Okay, I've been thinking. Here's the plan. I'm not sold that we're going to stay in these tribes for much longer though? We very well could, there's room for it, but that would be a low amount of swaps for a game this size. We very well may swap at any moment.
So, here's the deal:
- Snowy Owl is attached to Sloth who's attached to Mongoose. - Butterfly is attached to Frog who's attached to Capybara.
As long as Snowy Owl is attached to Sloth, Sloth and Mongoose are never clean targets for Frog. Ideally, Butterfly shouldn't want to lose Snowy Owl right after she lost Moth, for pagong fears. Frog isn't a big fan of Snowy Owl. Capybara will always be a valid vote.
All we need is a reason. And there's one available right here:
As long as Sloth and Snowy Owl are still in the game together, chances are they will keep poking at Capybara. If you target Sloth, Mongoose and Snowy Owl will follow for sure. If you target Snowy Owl, only Sloth would feel the need to save them. Snowy Owl keeps telling me how much they like Sloth, so the two have probably been allied for some time. This would break up an alliance in the making, if it doesn't already exist, and cement our control of the game.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 5:20:09 GMT
I barely ended up NOT sending that right away. I'm holding onto this, so I don't ruin my plans by showing the cards early.
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Post by Staphylococcus #489 on Apr 12, 2021 15:28:39 GMT
How did you come about eating plants?
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 15:31:56 GMT
Bunny taught me how!
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Post by Staphylococcus #489 on Apr 12, 2021 15:35:04 GMT
I'm assuming you taught bunny?
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 15:49:55 GMT
You see, the plan was for Bunny to teach me how to eat vegetables so I didn't end up eating everyone. How Bunny came about eating meat is beyond me, but maybe they picked it up from me by accident!
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 20:23:11 GMT
Well I guess I was being pessimistic - this could be Genet as well. I wouldn't be too surprised.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 20:58:43 GMT
If we win this, Genet probably goes due to activity. If we win the next one [assuming it's not a double elimination again, which it's looking likely], then Dog probably goes due to being Dog? You don't sit two people out of the challenge like that otherwise.
That's my ideal scenario. If we go to a double, uuugh but not surprised.
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 12, 2021 21:08:15 GMT
Alright, here are the scenarios I think could happen:
1) We stay in these tribes until merge. They're all single elimination.
Likelihood: Very Low. That's 1-3 more TCs in these tribes, which feels slow for this game. And this has some really bad setup for a pagong-heavy merge.
2) We stay in these tribes until merge. There is at least one double elimination.
Likelihood: Low. The double elimination would help speed things up to the pace the game's been going so far [WE'RE AT THE F14 AFTER THIS VOTE, BTW]. But I expect some more gameplay.
3) We merge immediately.
Likelihood: Probable. A 14 player merge is large, but not too crazy. There's still a few gameplay related reasons why I have issues with this, mostly due to the singular swap in a 24 player advanced game, but that's not a big deal. Also, if I merged now, I wouldn't have tribed with 5 people, which feels weird.
4) Between the end of this TC and the merge, we swap. There may be double eliminations involved.
Likelihood: Likely. 14 is a good swap number, and there's a large amount of unmet faces in the game still. There's bound to be a swap left in this game, because anything else feels weird.
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Post by Kelly Gordon on Apr 13, 2021 0:07:26 GMT
Who founded the culture magazine in 1908 named Der Spiegel which after 15 months merged with Siegfried Jacobsohn's journal Die Schaubühne?
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 13, 2021 1:48:37 GMT
A person I don't know
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Lion
Endangered
Posts: 263
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Post by Lion on Apr 13, 2021 2:30:37 GMT
I'd still like to win this challenge. Get Carnivora to boot Dog EVENTUALLY?
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